MAPLEWOOD: GET OUT OF THE HOUSE AND DO SOMETHING!

FEBRUARY IS FILLED WITH THINGS TO DO IN MAPLEWOOD! COME OUT AND SUPPORT YOUR LOCAL ARTS ORGANIZATIONS!

Friday February 4

Saturday February 5

8 pm

The Sweetest Swing in Baseball

The Strollers Community Theatre

Burgdorff Center for the Performing Arts

10 Durand Road

www.thestrollers.org

Call Brown Paper Tickets at 800-838-3006 or

http://www.brownpapertickets.com/event/139924

When an artist suffers a personal crisis and lands in a mental ward, she is coached by fellow patients on how to fool the doctors into extending her stay by pretending she thinks she’s troubled baseball player Darryl Strawberry.

Saturday February 5

1-3 pm

Performance Classroom - WORKSHOP: Improv for Adults

Burgdorff Center for the Performing Arts

10 Durand Road

Become a successful improviser of character, emotion, agreement, and confidence. More improv workshops scheduled for teens and kids coming up in March and April.

$75 per session 

pc@whatexittheatre.com

Sunday February 13

3:00 pm

Celluloid Candy:  A Film Series for Kids

Wallace and Gromit Film Festival

Burgdorff Center for the Performing Arts

10 Durand Road

For reservations:  studiobmaplewood@gmail.org

3 short films will be screened - perfect for families with kids of all ages:  Wallace and Gromit A Matter of Loaf and Death, A Close Shave, and The Wrong Trousers.

$3 kids, $5 adults

Sunday February 20

12-2 pm 

1978 Arts Center - COLLAGE WORKSHOP

Maplewood 1978 Arts Center

1978 Springfield Avenue

www.1978artscenter.org

(973) 763-2536

1978artscenter@gmail.com

FREE

For Adults and high school students. Collage lends itself to spontaneity and creativity. It's a treasure hunt for just the right pieces to fit the work.  Use photos, magazine clippings, trinkets to glue on to cardboard. 

Bring some treasures with you. Program organized by Evelyn Graves, noted artist and teacher. This workshop is in conjunction with UNTIRING: an Exhibition of Sculpture by Chakaia Booker (see below).

Sunday February 27

12-5 pm 

1978 Arts Center - ARTIST CONVERSATION WITH 

ELETA CALDWELL, GLADYS GRAUER, BISA WASHINGTON

Maplewood 1978 Arts Center

1978 Springfield Avenue

www.1978artscenter.org

(973) 763-2536

1978artscenter@gmail.com

 FREE

Which came first? Does the Found object inspire the art, or does the concept initiate searches for the object? This workshop is in conjunction with UNTIRING: an Exhibition of Sculpture by Chakaia Booker (see below).

Ongoing Events and Classes

UNTIRING: An Exhibition of Sculpture by Chakaia Booker

Maplewood 1978 Arts Center

1978 Springfield Avenue

 Weekends from 2:00pm to 5:00pm.

www.1978artscenter.org

(973) 763-2536

1978artscenter@gmail.com

 For its 10^th  annual Black History Month exhibition 1978 Maplewood Arts Center presents the work of  Chakaia Booker, the internationally renown American sculptor and artist. Most recently Ms. Booker exhibited her work at the Visual Arts Center in Summit, New Jersey and the DeCordova Sculpture Garden and Gallery in Lincoln MA.  Chakaia Booker is represented by the Marlborough Gallery in Manhattan

Lydia Johnson Dance

Winter/Spring Classes

Burgdorff Center for the Performing Arts

10 Durand Road

lydia@lydiajohnsondance.org

www.lydiajohnsondance.org 

Lydia Johnson Dance will continue to offer  Contemporary and Hip Hop classes at the Burgdorff Center in Maplewood Village again this winter/spring 2011! Registration is now open and many classes allow for ongoing registration.Lydia Johnson Dance (LJD) teaches a unique blend of Dance Technique and Choreography. No prior dance training is necessary. Unlike most other dance programs LJD believes that technique is best learned as children use their creative energy to compose their own dance works. In discovering the power of different movements and vocabularies, students become motivated to increase their technical range. The works presented at the end of each class series are totally choreographed by students using the compositional techniques that have been worked on throughout the semester.

Zumba

Burgdorff Center for the Performing Arts

10 Durand Road

Contact: Mimi Stella

mstella140@yahoo.com or call 973-444-9337

Wednesdays:  6:00pm to 7:00 pm

Cost:  $12 per class

Classes run weekly

Zumba is the Latin-inspired, easy to follow, calorie burning, dance fitness party! 

Feel the music and let loose.

Performance Classroom 

Burgdorff Center for the Performing Arts

10 Durand Road

 www.whatexittheatre.com/PC.html

  or 973-763-4029 

Music Theater - Mondays 4 - 5:15, February 7 - May 2

Create stories and write songs while learning basic musical theatre technique!

$275

Performance Playhouse - Mondays 5:15 - 6:30, February 7 - May 2

Come and experience the fun of putting on a show.  Students will be cast, rehearsed and have a chance to perform in a popular children's show.  Elements of acting, dance/movement and singing will be taught and shared at the final performance.

$275

Up the Movie=Great; Up, Up Up the mortgage rate, NOT SO!

	TODAY	YESTERDAY	CHANGE
30 Yr FRM	4.93	4.88	0.05%
15 Yr FRM	4.19	4.16	0.03%
FHA 30 Year	4.81	4.76	0.05%
Jumbo 30 Year	5.74	5.70	0.04%
5/1 Yr ARM	3.58	3.55	0.03%

To ARM'S, my friends!

Selling Within 5 Years? Switch To An Adjustable-Rate Mortgage. Seriously.

Mortgage rates and markets change constantly. Stay 100% current by taking The Mortgage Reports by email each day. Click here to get free email alerts, or subscribe to the RSS feed in your browser.

Mortgage rates have been rising -- sharply even -- but not all rates are rising equally. As such, it's an excellent time to look at 5-year ARMs.

November 3 : The "Bottom" For Mortgage Rates

In April 2010, mortgage rates started a marathon run. A downhill race, as it was.
Economic uncertainty -- both domestic and global -- helped crown the U.S. mortgage market King in an aggressive flight-to-quality among international investors.  Over a 26-week span, demand for mortgage bonds outpaced supply, driving mortgage rates to outrageous levels.
It ended November 3, 2010. That morning, 30-year fixed rate mortgages priced at 4 percent, with 0 points.
Never in history had rates been that low.
Since November 3, however, it's been a complete mortgage market unwind. It was November 3 on which the Federal Reserve announced a plan to inject the bond market with $600 billion and the plan was met with derision. Following the announcement, mortgage rates rose off their lows and never returned.
3 months later, we know -- the Federal Reserve killed the Refi Boom.

Adjustable Mortgage Rates Aren't Feeling The Pinch

According to Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey, average 30-year fixed rates are up 0.625 percent since early-November. On the street, though, I'll tell you the number's higher. Closer to a full point, actually.
The 5-year ARM, by comparison, is up only modestly.
The 30-year fixed and the 5-year ARM are responding to today's economy differently, creating the largest interest rate discount in recent history.

• Historical Interest Rate Discount : 0.42 percent
• Current Interest Rate Discount : 1.10 percent

ARMs are decidedly attractive as compared to 30-year fixed rate mortgages right now.  A $300,000 mortgage financed by ARM saves $194 monthly over a comparable fixed-rate loan.
Furthermore, so long as the Fed keeps "printing money" via its bond buys, the spread between ARM and Fixed is expected to widen. This is because when the Fed creates new money and adds it to the existing money in circulation, all dollars are, therefore, worth less and this is the very definition of inflation.
Inflation is awful for mortgage rates.

Use Wall Street's Anti-Inflation Attitude For Benefit

To understand why inflation is bad mortgage rates, think like a Wall Street buyer of mortgage-backed bonds.
Mortgage bonds make periodic interest payments to investors, and then a lump-sum principal payment at a specific point in the future. The payments are all made in U.S. dollars. If the dollar itself is expected to lose value because inflation over time, investors will insist on a higher rate of return to make sure they're getting their money's worth, so to speak.
And, as the time until payoff lengthens, that inflation risk increases.  This is one reason why 30-year fixed mortgage rates tend to respond more drastically to inflation than comparable 15-year fixed mortgage rates. More can happen in 30 years than in 15.
The 5-year ARM, by comparison, is even less affected.
5-year ARMs often payoff in 5 years or fewer, but when they don't, they're subject to inflation-based adjustments. Banks, therefore, have significantly lower inflation risk on ARM products -- both in the short- and the long-term.
Less risk, lower rates.

See For Yourself. Compare The 5-Year ARM To The 30-Year Fixed.

Although the 5-year ARM is cheaper to carry each month, but it's not for everyone. For one, the 5-year ARM carries long-term interest rate adjustment risk and not everyone is comfortable with that. Another point is that 5-year ARMs may be unavailable to certain homeowners based on current lending guidelines.
However, if you're looking to save money each month, or know you'll be moving in the next 5 years, it's a really smart time to explore what a 5-year ARM can do for your household budget.
Call me at 513-443-2020 or click here to send me an email.
I will help you review your situation and, if the ARM meets your goals, we'll take an application and get you a closing date.

mortgage rates climb again

	TODAY	YESTERDAY	CHANGE
30 Yr FRM	4.88	4.84	0.04%
15 Yr FRM	4.16	4.13	0.03%
FHA 30 Year	4.76	4.72	0.04%
Jumbo 30 Year	5.70	5.69	0.01%
5/1 Yr ARM	3.55	3.52	0.03%

What Exactly Is Shadow Inventory, "Killer Loop" and the Housing Market's Groundhog Day Loop.

What Exactly Is Shadow Inventory?

Posted: 02 Feb 2011 04:00 AM PST

It is difficult to read an article about real estate today without the term ‘shadow inventory’ being mentioned. But, what exactly is shadow inventory? It refers to the inventory of homes not yet for sale that will eventually come to market in the near future. Most definitions include properties already foreclosed on and owned by the banks (REOs), those houses in the foreclosure process and those homes where the homeowner is seriously delinquent on their mortgage payment (at least 90 days behind).

There are many questions about shadow inventory. Today, we want to address the most common misunderstandings.

I’ve heard about shadow inventory for years. Does it really exist?

Not only does it exist, it is being slowly released onto the market. The National Association of Realtors has reported that over 30% of all home sales over the last few months have been distressed properties.

Why include seriously delinquent homes in this number?

Seriously delinquent  are counted because studies show that 98% of all those who fall 90 days behind never catch up and these properties eventually come to the market as distressed sales (short sales or foreclosures).

Do banks have a backlog of properties that they currently own?

Yes. In an article in Housing Wire, RealtyTrac Senior Vice President Rick Sharga said:

“…major banks currently hold roughly 1 million REO, or homes repossessed through foreclosure, but only 30% have actually made it onto the market.”

Why are banks holding this inventory?

The article mentioned above answers this question this way:

Striking a proper balance on how to mange this shadow inventory of foreclosures is vital for the banks to show a healthy balance sheet while not dumping too many distressed properties onto the market, further dragging down home prices and values. 

Isn’t most of this inventory sub-prime and exotic mortgages?

Not any longer. A study recently done by Morgan Stanley shows that:

§ 26.3% of the loans are sub-prime

§ 17.4% are Alt-A

§ 56.2% are prime mortgages

Right now, prime mortgages make up the majority of loans in this shadow industry.

Isn’t most of this inventory confined to CA, AZ, NV and FL?

Not any more. The Morgan Stanley study showed:

…the shadow inventory is growing across all of the United States…”While hard-hit cities represent a more than fair share of shadow inventory, its distribution broadly encompasses all corners of the country,” said the analysts. 

Bottom Line from KCM:

Shadow inventory is real and will impact almost every part of the country. Make sure you ask a local real estate expert to find out how it may impact your market. 

Bottom Line from Mark Slade:

In fact, Rick Sharga of Realty Trac recently told Gary Keller of Keller Williams, Inc.,  that he forecasts we will see 3.2 million foreclosure notices in 2011, up from 2010's 2.8 million; he also projects that bank repossessions will be up 33% this year to 1.2 million from 2010's 900,000.    Lastly, he says we could see another 10% increase in these numbers in 2012.  

More interesting is what I like to call the "Killer Loop."  Here, the key is to the true strength (or weakness) of the Housing Market is tied to jobs; similarly, Jobs are linked to the health of the Economy and lastly, the Economy will dictate how well the Housing Market will truly perform.  What does this all mean: without any real job creation, we can expect to be stuck in a "groundhog" day loop.

How Are Mortgage Rates "Made"?

For Conforming Mortgage Rates, The 10-Year Treasury Is A False Proxy

I don't care what you've been told and who might have told it to you.  You can't watch the 10-Year Treasury and use it to predict mortgage rates.  Mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds and bonds don't move like treasuries.
If bonds moved like treasuries, this chart would be linear. Clearly, it's not.

How Are Mortgage Rates "Made"?

Making mortgage rates is a simple process. It's the result of a based formula based on the "going price" of a mortgage bond.  As it relates to conforming mortgage rates, the bond in question is issued by Fannie Mae. For FHA, it's issued by Ginnie Mae.
In both cases, however, there's an important, implicit corollary.
Because mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage bonds, it follows that mortgage rates, therefore, cannot be based on the price of anything else. This includes the 10-Year Treasury Note.
If you want to know where mortgage rates are headed, you have to watch the mortgage-backed bond market. That's fact and it's provable.

10-Year Treasuries Are A False Indicator

In defense of the 10-year treasury, it's got a terrific, long-term correlation to mortgage bonds.  And perhaps that's why the media likes to link the two.  That makes sense to me.  But, the issue here is that people watching mortgage rates aren't in it for the "long-term" -- they're decidedly short-term.
Over the short-term, the long-term correlation between treasuries and mortgage bonds means squat. The two are as different as apples and the early work of Raymond Carver.
On same days, pricing moves in the same direction; on other days, it moves opposite.
But, perhaps, what's most telling is that there was just one day last year on which the 10-year treasury note and the current Fannie Mae coupon made the exact same move in the exact same direction.  Just one.  Every other day, the two were different.
In other words, you can't use the 10-year treasury as an MBS proxy. It fails.

Where To Get Mortgage-Backed Bond Information

Another reason why people watch the 10-year treasury is because it's so dang easy to find it. Just turn on any business television program and the 10-year shows up in the crawl.
By contrast, mortgage-backed bond data is more elusive. You don't see it on TV and you rarely catch it in print. It's expensive to access MBS data but you can get summaries for free. If you're not following me on Facebook, click here to "like" the page to which I publish MBS updates.
If you're in the market for a mortgage, my Facebook page will give you a better feel for whether rates are rising or falling than you'll get from watching the 10-year, plus you'll receive important market pricing warnings as they happen.

Is It Time To Lock Your Mortgage?

The best part about watching mortgage-backed bonds is that you always know when conforming rates are about to get better, or worse. It maximizes your chances of timing the mortgage market just right.
Now, a lot of people don't want the hassle of tracking bonds. That's fine. Click here and it will send me an email -- I'll watch your bonds for you.  And then, when it's time to lock your rate, I'll handle that, too.  You won't have to worry about a thing.
I'm licensed in many states and answer all my own emails. Let me know how I can help